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Equity is still way too expensive on the JSE

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Preston
Super Contributor
20% further drop will make these equity price very reasonable.
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40 REPLIES 40
topgun
Super Contributor
thanks for that well argued and insightful contribution...any other pearls of wisdom?
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Pam_1
Regular Contributor
Preston you sound like a converted bear of the Org or Zarp class.
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Preston
Super Contributor
Busy drinking BIOPLUS. Will give you more insightful contribution just now.
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BRE
Regular Contributor
The DOW and Europe are in bear territory, and we tend to follow them like sheep.
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louisg
Super Contributor
Preston WHY do you think the market is 20% too expensive?
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platsak
Super Contributor
Preston. Have you gone short on any shares?
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Preston
Super Contributor
No, i am out of this market for now.
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sk_1
Super Contributor
I"m bottom feeding right now. ESOR, Raubex, S&B, on spec. Firstrand, PPC, I love a bear market, such nice bargains to be had.
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BRE
Regular Contributor
Yeah, bargins to be had, but if you get in too early you will be had!
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Not applicable
what preston said is not that crazy....right now the traditional view of whats cheap and whats expensive does not take the significant and I mean significant risk premium (discount) of equities into account....the wet behind the ears/"this is easy" fund mangers have now witnessed (may soon witness a black swan....
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Not applicable
you just have to look at the Merryl Bears and whoever else still talking up their book....they are predicting a 20 rally....that was before we saw the latest 5% plunge....
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
chartist, you're pulling our legs - surely? Now you're predicting a black swan?
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Wizard
Super Contributor
and what do u base that one on Presto...Did Project Director tell u that??
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louisg
Super Contributor
Bre, if you have bought into a solid company with good economic prospects at a fair price, why should it matter that you MAY (nobody knows that for sure) have bought it too early?
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louisg
Super Contributor
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Not applicable
No Simon...I am not predicting anything...in any case thats the nature of a black swan...you cannot predict it....what I am saying is that risk has been repriced thats all....for many the declines and price action we are seeing is something they have never seen.....(in a sense this has some aspects of a black swan event for them)
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Robbie
Regular Contributor
Where can we arrange a BEE loan for Preston ? then he doesn't need to wait for a 20% drop to afford current prices. (He might not even need to pay the loan back at all) I'll sell my JDG's to Preston
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DST
Super Contributor
Weird thing is - the swan needn't be black. It could be a reglar swan that got caught in an oil slick ... ...
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john_1
Super Contributor
this is what JP Morgan has to say;;;Commentary US equities have underperformed global equities by some 22% since 2002, during which time the US has seen a significant reduction in its weighting in the MSCI world equity index. This has been further compounded by the weak dollar over the same period. The relative downtrend remains intact suggesting that Wall Street is not available to lead a rebound in other equity markets: leadership will have to come from elsewhere. Key European equity indices are retreating from strong resistance levels and have broken support while emerging markets, which led the equity rally of the past couple of years, have broken below support. Of the BRIC equity markets, only Russia has not broken below multi-year bull trend support: Brazil, India and China are below support dating back to 2003 and we expect on-going weakness (see chart above). In the last week, Hong Kong has broken below primary bull market support giving a new technical sell signal. We remain equity bears. On the JSE, our long-term chart of the all share index has support at 27000; our medium-term chart provides the next key support level which is at 25000.
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