Is dis da morning of da dead cat bunce...

[barry_1]

..or is it da start of a recovery..geez i hate bein outa the market,anyways good luck to da intraday CALL traders.thinking of buying at leest 50 bokkie turbos or shoulda i buy 500,i dunno.?Resources horribly over sold,all i know!!!!!!

[Brazen]

Yep B. I think you have to go with your gut here and chuck in a few fundamentals. I bought some AGLSTAs yesterday, adding to those we bought at 405. PE of 12, a buy back of 4 billion and a decent divi - but, it is risky and AGL could still lose another R60 or so, so limited exposure. Problem is, if you don't buy now and it recovers, you gonna kick yourself. Just nothing highly geared so you can ride it out.

[barry_1]

Thanks Brazen,good advice,gut tells me sell off i past for the moment anyway,since i can't put @ market at the moment difficult to know how to price my bids,have a feeling prices shown on screen way too low,any ways think will be doing main buying once the market opens.

[Tango]

Barry, I'm also not convinced that this rally will last. Based on nothing more than gut feel, I think this rally will be sold later this week. When the bargain hunters that jump in today drop back to break-even they will sell and send us right through the support line we closed on yesterday. We're still in a bull market, but right now I think it's time for the short-term traders to make hay because I think we'll see lower prices yet pretty soon. Obviously, I could be completely wrong.....

[Brazen]

And most of the tech pros still have it going down further. BTW we were stopped out of SAP in close yesterday (below 110) and I sold into that small rally this morning. You still in WHL?

[CHATTYCHAT]

Large number of short term operators is shaking the boat. Wish they would get their act together. Pity it affects serious people to become nervous.

[faure]

I think this decline will go a lot further than what most people think. I mean come on - the US markets have their best day in 5 years and after yesterday's bloodbath all the market can do is open a measley 1% higher? The key thing to watch is what the Fed says tonight (8:15pm) about the sub-prime/credit crunch situation. It is almost a certainty that rates will stay at 5.25% but it's the statement which everybody will watch closely.

[kwagga]

Must agree with you Tango. I don't think we have seen the bottom of this correction. Too many negative sentiment on the market. Good to get in for a quick buck, but not for the medium or longer term.

[john_1]

Don't get to bearish in a bull market, It will make you miss a great buying opp. I think you are spot on though.

[faure]

Sure it's still a bull market - but that doesn't mean you can't have some hiccups along the way - just ask the guys holding SIM. We haven't had a healthy pullback since May last year. I'm still looking for the ALSI to go as low as 25000.

[john_1]

cool, I really hope it gets there, I think it will go lower and my reason is simple. This market is like a feather in the wind it is reactive and all levels are being determined by the overseas markets. I believe that we need the kind of correction that make SA investors buy their own market despite the issues overseas and that is going to take some more downside action I feel. that said If my triggers say buy I buy. done deal.

[#12]

faure ...I am afraid the SA market is totally dominated by global sentiment at the moment with the Dax still being a leading indicator....and the DOW being the confirming entity....traders are just reacting to what is happening....strategies have been completely screwed up....its fear buying and selling now....imagine if you were a fund trader now...what would you be doing? You have destroyed a huge portion of your customers wealth ....you sold...tried to buy back in...sold again at a lower price and tried to get back in at an even higher price...

[john_1]

True that, So talk me through the Pychology right now as you see it.

[barry_1]

Thanks folks,as the morning wears on i'm beginning to feel more bearish,still have gone further into SOL as i feel double whammy of no royalty,plus it was moving down for some time before sell off and finally final declaration coming up and more shakily SAP and IMP.The recovery of AGL/AMS seems weak and i feel more downside will occur.

[john_1]

Barry what is your email address I would like to send you some stuff, if you don't want to post it here is mine [email protected].

[Brazen]

Aaaarrrggh! Dunno what to do. This market is too difficult and I really need a crystal ball.

[john_1]

Big balls made of the right stuff, crystal of course.

[faure]

I've been using gbp/jpy as a leading indicator and as long as it stays below 242.00 I'm happy (I've been short for the last 2 weeks), anywhere above 242 and I'll start to get nervous. I fully expect the inverse correlation between the yen and world markets to weaken and for the market to focus back on where the dollar is going. Just technically the Dax looks like it's just catching its breath; drifting sideways in a consolidation pattern before the next move lower. It looks to me like the markets are setting up for a poor day tomorrow and any hawkish Fed speak, never mind our own SARB getting concerned about inflation, and markets will be toast. If the Fed comes out saying that the sub-prime excess needs to be corrected by market forces (not that unlikely), that could be the catalyst.

[Tango]

yes, still holding both. Yesterday's close was nasty and below my stop/comfort level, but today's rally puts me back over. So I'm still in for now, will re-evaluate this afternoon. Sitting on a loss, but nothing hectic. I still think the capitulation happened on WHL on 1 Aug. We've since gone lower, but on light volume. Pos divergences showing. An alternative scenario is that a H&S is playing out, and downside target is around 1600. Will stay in for now and keep a close watch on it