My Crystal Ball for today...

[_nova]

hmmm, the EZ currencies couldn't hack it and the rally is fading. That will bring our market down unless the Yen carries and EUR sustain the rally

[#2]

this is not my point nova, if I did not have the PPI info I would still be in the rally cause every system indicator I use tells me to be long, i.e. I just trade what's in front of me. To me markets are irrational I dont want to even try and guess how it will react to information, I just act with it...

[Werner_1]

so you are an actor?

[#4]

lol, good humour in these trying times is always important... so when do we meet Werner? No excuses, you live just 20 min away. You may just find out how much of an actor I really am!

[_nova]

Sure Wena, nothing wrong with your approach and I'm not knocking it at all. For me however, I've learn't that the info moves the dollar and the dollar moves markets. In this case a classic pop and drop as the USD shrugs off bad news. Three consecutive falling PPI readings mean deflationary pressure is building. US Redbook Nov store sales are -1.1% and yet the USD strengthens.

[john_1]

what is the red book?

[Wizard]

Is there a little chance that u maybe implying an `actor' the person that is interacting with an information systems from Object-Oriented Concepts??...because that's what we are!

[Electrox]

Is the Down Suking the optomists in only to spit them out 2morrow morning again, Lately is has not been how the dow opens, but how it closes..

[Shard]

For the last couple of days its opened with a rally and then fizzled. Funny thing is it creates a rally in our market but as soon as we close, it tanks again.

[Wizard]

SP500 licks the support...

[#11]

see wot I mean.....its easy...you just go short as soon as the Dow rally fizzles.....

[_nova]

it's basically a transcript of the inside information on the US economy as used by the FOMC during their meetings. In edited form it's the Beige book as released 8 times a year to the public. Don't know why they do it because it's pretty much the same info.

[_nova]

Paulson, Bernanke and Bair testifying at the moment before House Fin Services Committee on TARP. If they don't come clean and indicate very clear and decisive direction before they walk out of there... the markets are going to tank in it's moer

[Werner_1]

lol. i guess we are all actors in the world, where you from Wena?

[#15]

so to conclude the post... we did rallied really nice during the afternoon - BIL closed just shy of that target - everyone who was long is smiling right now...

[Wizard]

but they did...on 12 Nov. the Dow came down 400 points on the back of that.

[_nova]

nice one Wena, well spotted. I got it totally wrong but anyway, I sat on the side as the EURUSD was directionless throughout most of yesterday and the TARP testimony introduced too much unknown risk. Got it wrong this morning again as I really expected futures and cash to pop on the open. Anyone have an idea why we're going sideways on the open? Profit taking? 60min chart is definitely not yet overbought (RSI14 at 48 and Stoch at 60 is pretty neutral so it's got more scope for upside) Also my swing system shows the upside pivot at around 17350 for the TOP40. The only 'sign' I see here is that we're right on the linear regression line which has lately often been the swing point. Anyway, I'm not doing nuthin till my indicators say it's time to go long or short.

[#18]

well well....how pathetically desperate we have become for a rally....like the dehydrated in the dessert seeing mirages everywhere....

[#19]

just get back to the very very simple basics....just draw a line across the tops of the price action since say 10 November...you will see resistance firmly in tact....if it breaks it breaks and a buy on the pullback would be a good trade...until that happens more of the same...

[#20]

Now now Charty, my crystal ball was only for yesterday... like you, I dont hold overnight and thus I agree that we are still firmly in a downtrend daily.