R4 bil capital raising

[SimonPB]

did you read the article with ABL CEO in FinWeek a few weeks back .. he stated that he would not be selling Ellerines now as it would not get a decent price .. now either somebody came along with a great offer, or it is a fire sale .. Time will tell us which, but I would certainly bet on the later, no way they getting R3.5bn odd for it, anything less means they lost on the deal, and considering the profit from Ellerines R3.5bn would be on a massive PE

[THRESHOLD]

I have come to believe that nothing is in the price; or everything is in the price until something changes... which is all the time. If garnishee orders are revoked (possibly with retrospective effect,) ABIL could well go out of business. Even the ongoing level of retrenchment in mining (and other industries) could sink her over time. If all goes well and she moves her operating model into Africa - she could be an incredible investment. The problem is that the downside risk to her model is now catastrophic.

[kwagga]

I'd offer then R1 bil if my money wasn't tied up ;-)

[partridge]

The present price has the present news in it. New news equals new price. lets just leave it at that. What percentage of their business is "bad" - and underprovided for? I don't see much to worry about on that front. I come back to my point : there is no evidence of dumping their debt. As for the sale terms - lets wait and see...but lets not regard management as being headless chickens before we see the terms and what they "keep" as part of the deal. As for garnishee order being revoked - for goodness sake - there is a direct link back to the quality of their credit checking. This is not some loan shark outfit in a shady side street office we are talking about. Or do you think it is ? For everyone who "Marikanerises " the whole country opportunities exist.

[THRESHOLD]

I have spent years listening to this "It's all in the price" business. I can't tell you how hopelessly unhelpful that belief is. Nothing is "IN" the price; or we would never see this kind of wild action. On average - over time - it is all priced in. That is no help in the short to medium term. RAMS would say trade the price. Forget what's "in it." In this sense - he's right! Look at the retail stocks - look at construction, gold mining, platinum, SA industrial micrcaps. When will it "All be in the price" for these things. It was "all in the price" all the way down for the last 6 years. In the long term - I have no belief in this country. Marikana is the model of things to come. I have no interest in our banking and industrial stocks Then the trader in me surfaces and I buy one of these stupid companies.

[Rams]

this thread is too complicated for me so i thought i will lighten it up a bit. Talking of banks, what do you think of the "market" now being overly concerned about Maria Ramos's 'body language'...Trevor Manual once moved the market by wanting to move his body out of goverment and now Maria moved ABSA 7 % in one day with her body language...

[THRESHOLD]

All I can say is her body language does nothing for me.