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The banking index - bull and bear traps: an explanation

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topgun
Super Contributor
A bull trap happens when a false signal occurs that a declining trend in a stock or index has reversed and is heading upwards when, in fact, the security will continue to decline. A bull trap is therefore set by bears who start shorting again once the buying momentum dries up and the stock or index starts to retreat once more. In a bear trap the converse occurs ie a false signal that the rising trend of a stock or index has reversed when it has not and the bears start to short and get caught. It can also happen during a bear market reversal when short sellers believe the markets will sink back to its declining ways. If the market continues to rise, the short sellers get trapped and are forced to cover their positions at higher prices. www.investopedia.com So, if banking stocks and the index were to resume their declining trend, this is a bull trap for the buyers set by the bears - alternatively, if this is indeed a trend reversal and you were to go short, it will be a bear trap. So, now that the terminology has been explained, the choice is yours to decide what is happening here..
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10 REPLIES 10
Surf_Rat
Super Contributor
Hey so bears setting traps for bulls and the bulls set traps for bears you get it wrong when you put your foot in your own trap so I am checking four traps which do not make logic Mr price, JD Group,and the Banks ( ABSA ,Standard ) and then we have FNB at the moment I wish I had a map and metal detector so I would not have to walk through these landmines Reminds me of the bush war hope we make it out alive
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barry_1
Super Contributor
Thanks Topgun,but now i'm thougherly confused!
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barry_1
Super Contributor
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Not applicable
Verily. I'm just as confused, but on a higher level now...
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louisg
Super Contributor
Even a bank's balance sheet is less complicated.
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Not applicable
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Running_bull
Frequent Contributor
Well then the question is have the financial bulls now being caught with the mini rally last week? or is the trend really changing... (regardless of todays pull back)
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venice
Super Contributor
An up trend is defined as higher swing highs and higher swing lows. So it is too soon to tell whether this is a reversal or not.
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Running_bull
Frequent Contributor
True. But id like to pick up the trend as early as possible, as im sure everyone else would. Still dont believe financials are close to recovery though
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
the longer you wait for the trend the lower the risk, within reason.
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