XAU to 800, XPT to 900 and XAG to 10

[_nova]

Call it a gutfeel but methinks that we're in for a blitzkrieg pullback in commodities. The nonchalant VIX is suspect to say the least and the schadenfreude between the EURUSD makes me even more wary of whatever is cooking up out there (in this context I mean schadenfreude defined as "pleasure derived from the misfortunes of others" as both currencies seem to be sizing each other up... a truly dangerous pursuit for the sorry sods subject to them). I hope I'm wrong but I think the USD is going to come out on top here and it's going to hurt us.

[#2]

Nova dude.....have u noticed the paradigm shift that has occurred in the gold sector this last 2 weeks. The HUI/XAU and gold price are perfectly correlated with the USD index and inversely so with general equities. Imagine a container with water; with gold (& assoc stocks) and usd on one side and general equities (incl. other commodities) on the other. As you tilt in either direction flow moves the other way and in our world tis money flow. Just glad this decoupling has finally occurred so that hopefully gold and gold stocks should move up in next downdraft and not be sold off in a panic with everything else as occurred end last year.

[_nova]

Dinen bru, spot on! But that's exactly where the problem is. Look at the USD Index right now as it's heading for an upside breakout but the XAU and HUI are heading the other way. Granted it's only been the past 5 sessions or so but it's pretty worrying. I dunno, I could be seeing ghosts here, but I still think the USD is going to trash everything in it's sight for now as it's in the interests of the Fed's printing press (Spend a strong USD and then later pay back the debt in a devalued USD. Makes perfect sense). I see a big pullback in the next next couple weeks and then the mother of all bear rallies to somewhere between April and June, and then the final leg down. However, that's just a guess. What do you think?

[theyoungster]

Nova what is your opinion on oil crude oil? going somewhere?

[_nova]

sorry youngster, I'm not an oil fundi so would be guessing if I told you what I think. Well, it's a commodity and demand has been shattered. At a guess I'd say when either supply drops to demand levels or the auto market recovers, it's going to stay down. The big problem right now is for producers the unit cost of production is going through the roof on production cutbacks. As I understand, oil is a loss maker at under USD80 a barrel for the average producers. I think it's about only the Saudi's and Kuwaithi's who can produce at around USD25 a barrel. Though I'm just guessing here as I don't know much about oil, I don't trade it

[Electrox]

Thats a good question of where OIL fits into the picture if we really get this move down.. What will worry me is if Oil makes a run for it if thing do get bad.

[#7]

exactely whats happening today......equities down, gold & assoc. stocks up together with USD.