ACL

[#1]

Can we see 80 by the close today?? and how will the rate cut tommorow affect this share??Im short,so would it be wise to close out before the rate cut,if the rate cut is going to spur on a rally?? or must i wait??replies will be highly appreciated.

[HiSo]

ACL is currently around 90. Any valid reason (other than hope) that you think its gonna drop by more than 10% to 80 by close today?

[#3]

hope my frend,hope.Lol,nah i went short at 93,dont know wheter to wait or to close my position...any taughts where this share could be headed in the short term?

[SimonPB]

nb786, first rule of trading. BEFORE you enter have a clear defined exit strategy, and stick to that strategy.

[#5]

It is not certain whether interest rates will be reduced. Tito made some rather hawkish (and hypocritical, given his 28% increase this year) comments that labour cost increases over the past year have been much higher than the 6% upper inflation limit, maintaining inflationary pressure. You are correct that a rate cut generally weakens the Rand and causes the market to rally, especially exporters.

[#6]

I had 85 as a exit.I just weary that tommorows rate cut,might trigger a rally,thus wiping out my gains.Thus making me think of closing out today and taking profits.

[SimonPB]

nb, too much fear. You can't trade with fear.

[#8]

hmmmm,i should have rephrased,Mr Simon,what would you have done if u entered a short position at 93 on ACL?And no its not fear,its "profit taking".;)

[SimonPB]

it's fear, you're worried about rate cuts, losing your profit etc. That's fear. I don;'t trade acl, but either way have a exit plan and stick to it.

[#10]

Who can honestly say that they have no fear of losing money??Yes it is part of trading,but who njoys losses??

[SimonPB]

me, honestly. If you have fear you will not succeed. You have to believe this otherwise you are wasting your time and will loose your money. Read the post from earlier today.

[#12]

You shouldn't really be worried about your losses - take an exit strategy and accept the loss if it comes. What you should be considering, is what your potential reward is. Where do you think the share could go, if you are right. There is not a lot of sense taking a punt at a 10% move, if your stop loss is 10% - that makes it a 50/50 bet. (I am still finding my feet with short term trading, so correct me if I am wrong)

[#13]

Thanx for the input guys..Btw what effect would the rate cut have on MTN??

[Theater_Cat]

Rate cut 1% already factored in - unless reserve bank suprises us by cutting more than 1% there should not be a major rally.

[SimonPB]

i don't think 100 pts is factored in. Consensus is for 50 pts, so 50 is factored in - not 100.

[#16]

When did you go short,Date?

[doomsdayza]

that varies widely depending on who you talk to! :)

[SimonPB]

no it doesn't. Don't mistake a few talking heads talking 100 pts and being everywhere on the media as they saying something different (which the media loves). Every consensus is for 50 pts tomorrow.

[#19]

Simon yesterday most of those that participated on the forum said "no rate cut" how do you feel about it, standard bank's official view is no rate cut but for sure february 2009

[DST]

SOUTH AFRICA
Repo Dec Forecast
Absa 11.5%
Brait 11.0%
Efficient 12.0%
ETM 11.5%
Independent 11.5%
Investec 12.0%
JP Morgan 11.5%
Nedbank 12.0%
Standard Bank 12.0%
Thebe 11.5%
T-Sec 11.5%
Vunani 11.5%


I-NET BRIDGE CONSENSUS 11.5%
PREVIOUS LEVEL 12.0%
ACTUAL 15:10 Thurs 11 Dec 08