Bank Index - Head an Shoulders

[saash]

Chartist - I saw in the papers on Monday that home auctions have increased by 50% year on year, and that some banks are recording increases in default payment of up to 20% per month - And that the auction realisations are 10 to 15% below the market values, where the capital received is lower than the debt outstanding. This would surely see your head and shoulders playing out for the next 6 months, huh? Unless our finance minister, or the reserve bank, have a clever trick that would cause a bounce off support.

[Wizard]

We normally follow the US in everything they do with 1 year lag. We will stuff up our banks as well.we might even do it properly!

[SimonPB]

wiz, huh ? Sorry that be a nonsense statement. If anything we've gone the other direction with the NCA making money harder to get whereas the US made money way way easy to get. Over lay the DJ on the Topi, very very little corralation.

[Wizard]

Topi has the resources sector in it and as such it can't be related to DJ. Overlay the banking sector or financials to DJ and u see a clear picture of the situation. Increase in default payments of up to 20%, increase of fixed assets inventory means only one thing..Bull Run in Shorts!

[#5]

increase in sub-prime exposure?

[YNWA]

Wiz, ..... enjoy this.....Quote of the 2 Hundred Years!!--- 'I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.' Thomas Jefferson 1802

[#7]

Ya Saash....u know as hard as it is to imagine or even rationalise we cannot ignore the pattern which is developing on the banks....our banks are fundamentally very strong and we dont have the same lending practices...but I think very recent history has shown us that just because it doesn't make sense right now it wont in the future.....to think that we will be immune to house price depreciation is naive...I am busy looking at properties and in some case stuff that was going for 6 mill is going for something over 3....the depreciation is happening...we just dont see it cause the estate agents are very good at talking up their book...lets say we do get serious depreciation ...what happens is that you get jingle letters....thats when the value of someones house falls below what they owe and then they post the keys to the banks and say thanks u can have it back now....if u look at afford ability of houses there is no doubt that we have a housing bubble...then of course there is the ZAR....well u see the beauty of TA we dont have to bust our brains over all this...we just wait and see if the head and shoulders happens or not...until things are confirmed we do nothing...I know Simon has a disdain for TA but I know that even he was amazed at how accurate the Head and shoulders on the Alsi was at predicting the serious downside we have had...as traders we would not be doing our job if we ignored this pattern...

[Wizard]

Very Zarpish statement...If u posted this 1 year ago u were not going to be a very popular guy around here. :)

[_nova]

Chart Pattern Systems are probably the strongest TA indicator available. But that's my opinion. Not only does the index have a broad and strong H&S forming on a great time scale, the daily, but it has also confirmed the double top inside the H&S by the subsequent sell-off. Chartist is right, we have to wait for the break and close below the neckline.

[#10]

I know someone in the car repo section of one of the big banks - you would not believe how bad things are going. No way the banks were not going to suffer after 2 years of record car sales, and with money to repay loans drying up.