GND - Barry some advise or anyone else

[#1]

Hey Barry, GND is taking quite a smack. I am looking to reload on them at around R16 to R17 levels, but am wondering about these zero cost collars. What impact will this have on the share? Long term (3 years) I have maintained that this company has brilliant potentail(especially given their diverse nature and contract book and weakening rand) but I have noticed Stdandard has forcasted quite bad results for the 3rd year. Do you have any ideas why? Any help would be appreciated as always. Thanks :)

[john_1]

The baltic dry freight index has fallen dramatically over the last couple of weeks. Also their is a over supply on the asia-europe routes so shipping companies arround the globe are coming under preasure..Transport reflex economic demand as it drops of so shipping rates too slows down...recesion = bad for shipping companies.

[#3]

Thanks John. Any ideas where I can view and get more data on the shipping index you speak of?

[Galuc]

Damn and I thought this share would fly with the christmass rush!

[john_1]

Google baltic dry freight index

[YNWA]

Ozone follow this paper trail.....http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVHeUJakWIbc.....http://www.bloomberg.com/app... the MAIN MAN for the relationships with other indices..........http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

[barry_1]

i agree with all the comments from other forumites for the moment...As it comes up to its final declaration in Feb on the positive side i feel it has discounted much of the bad news....A share never fully understood,by the tipsters,with always negative comments,even when outstanding results are due.(See the past SENS).They are developing different strings of income.....if they were to seek a secondry listing in London ,there would be a strong re-rating....I dont hold at the moment ,but will consider buying again nearer its div,as it it one of my favourites.OMO.

[#8]

Hey Barry, Im not holding at the moment either. Its also one of my favourites, and I know we have had chats about this in the past. I agree with your assesment on the London listing. Looking to start picking up some share along the way between now and Decemeber. PS Thanks everyone for all the help :)

[Major]

Note that GND hedge much of their shipping via long term contracts, so are not too exposed to the gyrations of the baltic index. it means they sometimes miss out on the high shipping rates (like last year) but lock in secure revenue in more difficult times (like now). If it falls much futher it will have broken its long term uptrend, but at 18 is right on a key technical level. If it rises from here, I'm buying more.

[#10]

GND constantly confuses me. Over the past 10yrs- HEPS yr/yr in excess of 30% growth; ROCE in excess of 27% yr/yr; Shareholders Interest in excess 25% yr/yr; Turnover in excess of 35% yr/yr. All add up to phenomenal growth, so why does teh SBK forcast show a negative growth across all figures for the next 3 yrs? Am I missing something by looking at the great dividend yield & solid past performances?

[Quakedog]

I have 120 contracts long!

[louisg]

Notice that the consensus is from 1 analyst only.