Next leg up

[kwagga]

I suspect the next leg up for GFI has started. First hurdle will be a close above R118, after that we'll see R122-123 which is the target for final profit take.omo

[kwagga]

Next leg up did not materialize. Closed position yesterday. Waiting for next set up.

[Rams]

nice trade...stop loss(or profit) or manual exit?

[kwagga]

Manual exit.

[#5]

Well, these are the only stocks I short - I am short since 11760

[kwagga]

I'd take some profit on that short on anything I can get below R108. Yesterday saw the biggest one day gold price drop since March. If you expect another drop, then keep it, but I'd rather take no position at all for the next few days in gold. Made a nice profit from R102 when I went long. Took profit on R112 on the way up and down and on R118.

[#7]

NAh, I am banking on the big one. On a burst on the gold bubble followed by a total collapse in the mining sector. If I am wrong, I lose 5% profit, if I am right, well - you know the story.

[kwagga]

The gold price won't burst if as long as risk prevails, and finacial market risk is here to stay for quite a while if you ask me.

[#9]

there is a fundamental shift taking place in gold, and the markets in general, IMO. The dollar is rallying, which is bad for gold. Gold was typically a hedge bet, but now it is tracking major indices lower. It should be the other way around. So we are seeing a dollar rally (bad for US markets) and a gold bear market (bad for gold miners). I think Soros was right - that gold is the ultimate bubble. Way to many opposing forces for SA gold miners here (through in increased costs, decreased production, nationalization debates, etc) I only see one way a SA gold miner can go.

[Fredsed]

You forgot about the blood on the streets. Best buy recommendation always oozes blood.

[#11]

Ja, but I dont see any?

[kwagga]

You're right with the fundamental change in gold's behaviour. Gold has however imo shown a lot of resilience to negative news. Also remember that Gold producers will scale down if they become non profitable, leading to an undersupply supporting the gold price again. Normal market forces will always win in this type of tug of war. Gold bullion is going nowhere soon, and going short now on anything relating to gold is looking for trouble. I love gold plays, to the long side. I seldom seem to het the short side right, so I don't go short, and I never hold gold miners long term because it makes no sense doing so, but it's great for trading every now and then.

[Fredsed]

Significant interest just now in GLD...

[THRESHOLD]

With what is going on in the world I am happy to hold a position in Goldies - never too big - (and to trade this position when the oportunity presents.) The headwinds facing our gold mines (on 6x FPE) with huge growth projects and expanding overseas production profiles are the same as those facing our general miners. Gold is in huge deficit relative to bullion-adjusted value. Nearly everything else is in surplus or completely unnecessary if the world slows. The difference is that in a depression scenario (possibly even with stagflation) - there is no story for AGL, BIL et al. Gold will rise inexorably. Even our food companies are unable to deal with inflation. These are views one takes. They are dependant on the scale of one's portfolio. Time will tell.

[Rams]

its old blood...now looks black and curdled...could be mud

[SimonPB]

actually food comapnies (esp manufacturers) very skilled at passing on inflation increases .. you did the TBS numbers ..

[THRESHOLD]

I specifically cited food companies because of this traditional virute of theirs! BUT!! TBS fell because they indicated that they were struggling to pass on costs: "Gross margins were negatively affected by significant raw material cost inflation as well as higher production costs due to above-inflationary labour and energy cost increases." PIONEER was even worse. The Chicken and Fish boys - well that's another unhappy story. AND let me make a prediction:- their GP's are going to suffer even more in times to come.

[#18]

yip, and retailers too. And what the hell is a deficit to bullion adjusted value? Never heard of that term before. And if you think that Anglo and bill has no future, well, perhaps you should have a look at Kumba and Exxaro's charts to see the kind of growth that Iron Ore is experiencing. China might be slowing, but it still records a 7 or 8% GDP growth. That is still massive, and more importantly, still growing

[#19]

yip, and retailers too. And what the hell is a deficit to bullion adjusted value? Never heard of that term before. And if you think that Anglo and bill has no future, well, perhaps you should have a look at Kumba and Exxaro's charts to see the kind of growth that Iron Ore is experiencing. China might be slowing, but it still records a 7 or 8% GDP growth. That is still massive, and more importantly, still growing

[THRESHOLD]

AND yes - I did do the TBS numbers. AND that was the case. AND these companies were very good to me. BUT! - I don't like them anymore.