Not sure if we are out the woods yet

[#1]

Please lets keep this debate serious, devoid of the usual overbought/oversold comments. I have finally sat down to run through the numbers. Interest bearing debt for Ruashi is now at R1.1bn (down from R1,5bn) however R630m was payable in the next 12 months, and no announcements made as to what the revised figure is. Also, Ruashi hedge is still USD 3900 for 13k tons - at current production, that looks like 100% - means no free cash flow will come from Ruashi for the next 6 months. Chibuluma is not hedged, in full production and should give around R220m in free cash for the next 6 months. Where will the rest come from? I think MTX can generate around $80m in free cash in the next 12 months so it looks like they could break even now, but it is going to take at least 2 years before shareholders get anything!

[#2]

I will revise those figures thanks to my desktop analysis. Recalculation suggests they can generate about R600m in operating profit, but their annual report suggests that they have around R680m to pay in the next financial year. Oops. And I still don't know if they are finished with their impairments or if more capex is required. these guys are in trouble still, if you ask me

[THRESHOLD]

Her cobalt is essentially unhedged and almost as valuable as her copper production. ZAMBIA does carry a medium-term hedge for part of her production at just under $5000 Although Sable is unhedged. Ruashi is supposedly fully financed (or nearly so) Her hedge in DRC is about 50% of production at 3900 rising to 6000 over the next year so -average of about 5450. The balance is unhedged. Recommissioning of Phase 1 in the DRC would add 12000 tons? of unhedged copper and another 1500 odd tons of cobalt (or so.) Her cash flows should see her through the next year no problem. Should she need money - she could extend a hedge at a more favourable rate over the balance of her production. Although she only "owns" 75% of DRC - the full cashflow of the mine is available at unit level before applying her percentage interest, of course. RISK? - sure but not nearly what it was. The real risk here is a sharp reversal on the copper price.