Nova.....EURUSD

[#1]

This pair starting to wind up very tightly. Is there any way to guage the approx move up or down (hopefully down)once it breaks the triangle?.....or just previous S & R?

[_nova]

whoowheeeeee, looks like EURUSD is breaking out of it's triangle upwards. This could rally us big time if it closes above the triangle and the EUR rally sustains

[_nova]

Yes microlighter you can gauge it approximately. First, the session must close above the triangle and then the next daily bar must open above to confirm the break. Next the 21 day EMA must tumble at 1.2835 and then target the upper bollinger at 1.2035. Above that the fibos at 1.3285, 1.3587, 1.3890 and 1.4867. I doubt 1.48 will be reached but 1.38 is very possible. I hope you're not short? If you are, then stick to your stops because if this break confirms then the carries are going to go hog wild and the EUR will rally hard

[asylum]

nova how does this influence the american market have never traded forex but have been following your post and looking at forex charts and you seem to be spot on, what should we look out for, thanks

[Brazen]

And Nova baby, if the dollar weakens commondities are gonna fly. Hello AGL. Hello BIL and big HEELLLLOO TOPI.

[_nova]

big time influence. USD weakness is good for US exports which is what they desparately need right now so it normally rallies the markets. That's the basic explanation. There are many other variables that also count such as the USD Index

[#7]

Too late...stops taken out on 3 contracts. How was anyone supposed to call the direction on that one?

[_nova]

I don't want to be funny but this EUR breakout could be the real thing. This absolutely smacks of conspiracy... Central Bank intervention and/or sovereign funds in the 30 min hust before the US opens. They see US futures dropping through the floor so they manipulate the currency market to support the US markets. And frankly it could be any combination of CB's doing this as they're all in the same boat.

[asylum]

ya i see another breakout on the charts is that good for commodities?

[_nova]

micro? just learn the lesson that if you're going to trade inside a triangle then know that you're going to see unpredictable swings until there is a break. The rule is tight stops inside the pattern. Once the break confirms then you know you have direction. Anyway, I haven't put on a single trade since last week exactly because of this uncertainty. Do you use a system?

[YNWA]

...think I care Nova?...whoever did whatever needs a slap on the back.....tired of the negativity...even a certain ladies Chi..wow..wow pizzed on my leg....that was a sign for some green ços I couldn't see red as it was all taken by the bears....haven't they had enough porridge by now?...chuck the mothers outta attic window!....nice reading the tea leaves tho' hombré.

[Brazen]

LOL! Y-baby a conspiracy works for me too. How was the holiday - you missed the cr@piest weather out - rained soldily for days and days.

[john_1]

LOL! had to see green cos all the tred was taken..I love that!

[#14]

No system really....try to just use common savvy with some basic TA. Very new to FX still but find it more exiting than shares. Ja should not have been *****ing around inside the triangle esp at such a late stage.

[john_1]

Nova sorry to piss on your parade but that was just a gap close now comes the real test.

[_nova]

Ya YNWA I been watching the EURUSD with a beady eye for days now. I was sure it would be the trigger for a market rally and would be a lead indicator and it sure followed through. but there's a big but here. The daily candle today MUST close above the triangle and the next one MUST open above to confirm the break.

[Brazen]

Keep us posted please Nova. This currency sh*t sure is fascinating.

[_nova]

no problem John, gaps, swings, currencies, they're all just systems and they happen to have mutually pointed in the same direction. Your gap on the ALSI was my triangle on the EURUSD. Simple innit? Anyway, like I've said a couple times now this is a break in play and it is NOT yet confirmed. The session MUST close above and the next one open above to confirm the break

[_nova]

Put it another way, I'm not long yet and won't be long until I'm certain we have a real rally

[YNWA]

m!wah to both of ya....working holiday was cool, always good up there....only setback are the mozzies...jeez those dudes got 2 yellow GT stripes 'n are big enough to carry ya away...I swear they gotta a 3l cortina engine in them...with a 2l coke & 1l klippies nogal...man'O'man dem being the biggest mozzies since the wright brothers went bareback on theirs.