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Redefine performance

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Not applicable
Have to say that I am getting a bit tired of the lack of capital growth in Redefine. I have some cash that I want to put away into listed property - but with the myriad of options out there, it is a bit tedious to go through all of them to determine which has the best merit. Thought I would put it out to the forum to help me filter out the rubbish from the good prospects. Anyone able to assist?
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8 REPLIES 8
prancing_horse
Super Contributor
The question I have to ask, is why property? When interest rates are as low as they are now, any movement up is going to diminish any chance of capital appreciation.I believe interest rates are being kept artificially low for various reasons and further downside is extremely limited due to inflation pressures.Don't know how well Miss Marcus is sleeping at present.I made a killing with Sycom and Pioneer (since swallowed up)during the Asian crisis when interest rates were extremely high (+/-24%), as I felt further upside was limited.The opposite to what exists today.The other reason I don't like property Co's is the management fees that get skimmed from rental incomes, that's why I've always done my own thing with solid partners in owning commercial and indusrial property.Maybe it did help being in the construction industry. Of course there are thousands of supporters of these shares, but under the current climate not for me.
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Not applicable
I guess you have a valid point. Timing for listed property should take interest rate cycles into account, especially since they are so heavily geared. But they are also sensitive to capital appreciation and inflation - especially the ones that own malls, like Growthpoint - who's income is linked to the topline of their retailers
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gareth01
Regular Contributor
I tend to agree with both of your comments, but owning flats +- R400 000 - R600 000(which yields a great return a few years back, are causing much frustrations in management with tenants having no respect for one's property, and continous breakages) - hence I have over the past 2 years preferred property loan stocks (Growthpoint/Redefine)/unit trust (SA Corp)as no hassel of tenants. Rental increases now 8% if you lucky, then late rental payments, rental agents fees and then repairs and maitenance - not much of a return - although, I can gear the properties up to purchase other properties. (suppose pros and cons). But the banks' stringent policies on homeloans today, also restrict one's ability to gear the property, especially access bonds eg: 1 Property: Value R1m owe R400 000 = @ 80%Loan to value R800 000 less R400 000 = R400 000 available. 2 Property: Value R700 000, owe R150000 = @80% loan to value = R560 000, less R150 000 = R410 000. Now the bank's say, as we have access to R800 000 + R560 000 = you must prove your affordability (net of your tenant income, as tenants come and go) - and to protect the client (and the bank) - yawn - they say we must prove affordability for the full access amount. Secondly, the bank is now charging for "un-utilised funds", as apparently they have to borrow capital to cover our limits on the access bond. (Thanks NCA and Basel 1, 2 and 3). What about last 10 history of sound financial management, good conduct of bank accounts....seems we getting burnt for others inability to manage their cash flows... Suppose if your investment strategy is "capital growth" which most of us seek, I am still an accumulater of these shares for the longer term as part of a diversified portfolio(as they will have there turn again as an important investment asset), although now they are appearing a bit under pressure. Just my two cents worth...
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gareth01
Regular Contributor
I tend to agree with both of your comments, but owning flats +- R400 000 - R600 000(which yields a great return a few years back, are causing much frustrations in management with tenants having no respect for one's property, and continous breakages) - hence I have over the past 2 years preferred property loan stocks (Growthpoint/Redefine)/unit trust (SA Corp)as no hassel of tenants. Rental increases now 8% if you lucky, then late rental payments, rental agents fees and then repairs and maitenance - not much of a return - although, I can gear the properties up to purchase other properties. (suppose pros and cons). But the banks' stringent policies on homeloans today, also restrict one's ability to gear the property, especially access bonds eg: 1 Property: Value R1m owe R400 000 = @ 80%Loan to value R800 000 less R400 000 = R400 000 available. 2 Property: Value R700 000, owe R150000 = @80% loan to value = R560 000, less R150 000 = R410 000. Now the bank's say, as we have access to R800 000 + R560 000 = you must prove your affordability (net of your tenant income, as tenants come and go) - and to protect the client (and the bank) - yawn - they say we must prove affordability for the full access amount. Secondly, the bank is now charging for "un-utilised funds", as apparently they have to borrow capital to cover our limits on the access bond. (Thanks NCA and Basel 1, 2 and 3). What about last 10 history of sound financial management, good conduct of bank accounts....seems we getting burnt for others inability to manage their cash flows... Suppose if your investment strategy is "capital growth" which most of us seek, I am still an accumulater of these shares for the longer term as part of a diversified portfolio(as they will have there turn again as an important investment asset), although now they are appearing a bit under pressure. Just my two cents worth...
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gareth01
Regular Contributor
apologies for the duplication
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partridge
Super Contributor
The sort of questions you should be asking( given your objectives which seem to be investing vs trading)1. does listed property presently offer a discount to long term expected returns from this asset class? Answer probably NOT. Will it beat inflation - answer probably YES. So well let , modern high traffic shopping centres and core office and industrial offerings tick boxes - they offer diversification and rising incomes - well the latter generally. I reckon the costs of directly owned property are almost never properly reckoned by the owners. So returns are lower than they generally advertise. ( And that ignores the lack of diversifcation when you buy a property -and time value of their money and time. That said if you have been in the building trade you will expect greater investment and development cost efficiencies than Joe Public - like me. ) Interesting - the following comment from Lord Hailsham " Law is a family mansion whose upkeep requires constant maintenance and repair - as well as demolition and extension" = wonder why he used the analogy of property ownership? My turn to ask as question - if like me you are sitting with CSO would you sell or stick..for another 12 months?
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Not applicable
OK - let me reign in all the wild horses here. I am not looking for another property vs share debate (there are enough of those on the forum). I am also not looking for a debate around the merits of listed property either. I am looking for a debate on the best options in this asset class, since there are so many of them - and listed property prospecti (prospectuses?) are sooooo tedius to wade through!
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partridge
Super Contributor
read the one page Listed property quarterly in today's Daily Standard
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