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Online Share Trading

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Shares for the Future

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Blik
Super Contributor
Afternoon forum. If you had to pick one share for the long term - say 15-20 years timeframe. What would you pick at this time? Say you have up to 50K to spend. Any suggestions? Would it be a share like Zeder with a low PE or a solid bluechip like BHP.
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19 REPLIES 19
Preston
Super Contributor
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Blik
Super Contributor
Hello Preston - any reason why?
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Preston
Super Contributor
I going to reply by posting you a discussion that forum member had. PSG Value? by asylum on 01 Jun 13:06 PSG has a PE of 5.76 is this share under valued any oppinions? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Jun 13:06 [Reply] [Zoom Out] Re:PSG Value? by Preston on 01 Jun 13:09 Not really...My advise to you is follow the money. M Jooste invested a large sum of money ....He must know something.... Re:PSG Value? by asylum on 01 Jun 13:21 So if you say they are not under valued what about other financcial like investec that has a PE of almost 14 are they then overvalued? Re:Re:PSG Value? by Preston on 01 Jun 13:34 Sometimes an illogical approach should be taken when investing..We have been brainwashed to think and talk in a similiar monotonus way. Illogical approach... Markus Jooste is one of the smartest man around , he has played an intergral role together with Chris van Niekerk in shaping Phumelela.... So if has invested +/1 R500m in PSG. I guess he believe that that P/E ratio is low and there exist tremendous growth potential... Do some research on Markus Jooste.... This is only my opinion.................. Re:PSG Value? by JohnnyCash on 01 Jun 13:41 Just note that some of the reason for the low PE is the fact that PSG made huge windfall Profits in the last year that from their own mouths are not going to be repeated in future years ( depends whether you believe that or not) If you were to normalise their previous year's earnings you will find the PE to be in excess of 10 (I only reckon) and that is why its not currently on a 12 ro 14 PE... IMO Re:Re:PSG Value? by Preston on 01 Jun 13:53 JC - Agreed . But to me a P/E ratio only tell me based on historical Earning per share (current financial year), how long it will take, before you can recoup that share price. P/E Ratio play a significant role in valuation of a company when the is a potential sale although valuation based on P/E ratio is extremely subjective and at best left alone. What is important to me is that 1.) The share price has doubled over a period of 12 month. 2.) It has attracted the interest of a RISING INFLUENTIAL MAN ie Markus Jooste. PS I am not promoting this share only expressing an opinion based on what little information i know about Markus Jooste Re:Re:Re:PSG Value? by JohnnyCash on 01 Jun 13:57 Preston, with u on this one. Merely answering the Q regarding the low PE. Because its historic the PE ratio assumes at least the same amount of profit going forward and it will pay off your price u paid in 5.76 years. Problem comes in when your next year's profit is lower! Its a technicality. PE's aside, Id also go for this one purely on said individual's interests! U know, he coulda bought Rm500 in his own company but he didnt...... Re:Re:Re:Re:PSG Value? by Preston on 01 Jun 14:02 Exactly..He could have invested in Steinhoff but he choose to invest in PSG. Do not be alarm that the share price will basically double in 12 month time. Sometime an illogical approach to investing is required... We need to understand the individual that is pumping the money into PSG... He is certainly no fool!!! Re:PSG Value? by GdM on 01 Jun 13:46 Who the H3LL has R500m lying around? That's insane... Re:PSG Value? by asylum on 01 Jun 13:49 Most goverment officials. Re:PSG Value? by GdM on 01 Jun 13:51 No way. Not that type of money. Not even corrupt government officials. That's stratospheric. Re:PSG Value? by Gravy on 01 Jun 13:53 Check out the obv and volumes from two days ago. Looks like someone REALY likes the share.. Re:PSG Value? by Gravy on 01 Jun 14:11 dunno if this counts for anything, but a large US hedgefund has been stalking JSE for awhile (they are in the top five worldwide in terms of money under management). I don't know for sure, but I think they are the other big stock holder in the JSE, along with PSG, who hold the bulk of JSE ltd's shares. The fund in question is a value miner - they find companies that are undervalued, or perhaps in trouble, and buy a stake large enough to get them onto the board. Their strategy is to hold for up to five years, and sell with a large profit. Ergo, could be they see the JSE as undervalued - or potentially worth a lot more - and are talking to PSG. As we say in the biznezz, though, don't quote me.. Re:Re:PSG Value? by Preston on 01 Jun 14:14 Thank for that info. I was not aware of those facts. Re:Re:PSG Value? by kwagga on 01 Jun 14:49 Gravy, I think you've just added a few colours to my picture of PSG. Something is definitely up. No one with Jooste's business acumen would invest this amount of money in any company if there is little payback. The JSE has also moved from R70 - R80 within the last two weeks. I smell a big fat rat.... Re:PSG Value? by SimonPB(Standard Bank) on 01 Jun 14:51 remember FSB rules state that nobody can own more then 15% of the JSE. Re:Re:PSG Value? by Preston on 01 Jun 14:55 Don't stress Simon..I have only got 14.967% , still a bit short.(LOL) Re:PSG Value? by topgun on 01 Jun 15:03 I don't want to ***** anyone's bubble but PSG has liquidated their 15% stake in JSE Ltd. some time ago as they were refused board representation - check their results annoncement on SENS. Re:Re:PSG Value? by Gravy on 01 Jun 15:58 Yup - you right - PSG did sell. Well spotted, TG. Still, the JSE remains on the US radar. So much for my supposition - must be some other reason Jooste is interested in PSG.. Re:Re:Re:PSG Value? by Gravy on 01 Jun 16:12 Come to think of it - maybe he needs a tax loss..
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Preston
Super Contributor
PSG Value? by asylum on 01 Jun 13:06 PSG has a PE of 5.76 is this share under valued any oppinions? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Jun 13:06 [Reply] [Zoom Out] Re:PSG Value? by Preston on 01 Jun 13:09 Not really...My advise to you is follow the money. M Jooste invested a large sum of money ....He must know something.... Re:PSG Value? by asylum on 01 Jun 13:21 So if you say they are not under valued what about other financcial like investec that has a PE of almost 14 are they then overvalued? Re:Re:PSG Value? by Preston on 01 Jun 13:34 Sometimes an illogical approach should be taken when investing..We have been brainwashed to think and talk in a similiar monotonus way. Illogical approach... Markus Jooste is one of the smartest man around , he has played an intergral role together with Chris van Niekerk in shaping Phumelela.... So if has invested +/1 R500m in PSG. I guess he believe that that P/E ratio is low and there exist tremendous growth potential... Do some research on Markus Jooste.... This is only my opinion.................. Re:PSG Value? by JohnnyCash on 01 Jun 13:41 Just note that some of the reason for the low PE is the fact that PSG made huge windfall Profits in the last year that from their own mouths are not going to be repeated in future years ( depends whether you believe that or not) If you were to normalise their previous year's earnings you will find the PE to be in excess of 10 (I only reckon) and that is why its not currently on a 12 ro 14 PE... IMO Re:Re:PSG Value? by Preston on 01 Jun 13:53 JC - Agreed . But to me a P/E ratio only tell me based on historical Earning per share (current financial year), how long it will take, before you can recoup that share price. P/E Ratio play a significant role in valuation of a company when the is a potential sale although valuation based on P/E ratio is extremely subjective and at best left alone. What is important to me is that 1.) The share price has doubled over a period of 12 month. 2.) It has attracted the interest of a RISING INFLUENTIAL MAN ie Markus Jooste. PS I am not promoting this share only expressing an opinion based on what little information i know about Markus Jooste Re:Re:Re:PSG Value? by JohnnyCash on 01 Jun 13:57 Preston, with u on this one. Merely answering the Q regarding the low PE. Because its historic the PE ratio assumes at least the same amount of profit going forward and it will pay off your price u paid in 5.76 years. Problem comes in when your next year's profit is lower! Its a technicality. PE's aside, Id also go for this one purely on said individual's interests! U know, he coulda bought Rm500 in his own company but he didnt...... Re:Re:Re:Re:PSG Value? by Preston on 01 Jun 14:02 Exactly..He could have invested in Steinhoff but he choose to invest in PSG. Do not be alarm that the share price will basically double in 12 month time. Sometime an illogical approach to investing is required... We need to understand the individual that is pumping the money into PSG... He is certainly no fool!!! Re:PSG Value? by GdM on 01 Jun 13:46 Who the H3LL has R500m lying around? That's insane... Re:PSG Value? by asylum on 01 Jun 13:49 Most goverment officials. Re:PSG Value? by GdM on 01 Jun 13:51 No way. Not that type of money. Not even corrupt government officials. That's stratospheric. Re:PSG Value? by Gravy on 01 Jun 13:53 Check out the obv and volumes from two days ago. Looks like someone REALY likes the share.. Re:PSG Value? by Gravy on 01 Jun 14:11 dunno if this counts for anything, but a large US hedgefund has been stalking JSE for awhile (they are in the top five worldwide in terms of money under management). I don't know for sure, but I think they are the other big stock holder in the JSE, along with PSG, who hold the bulk of JSE ltd's shares. The fund in question is a value miner - they find companies that are undervalued, or perhaps in trouble, and buy a stake large enough to get them onto the board. Their strategy is to hold for up to five years, and sell with a large profit. Ergo, could be they see the JSE as undervalued - or potentially worth a lot more - and are talking to PSG. As we say in the biznezz, though, don't quote me.. Re:Re:PSG Value? by Preston on 01 Jun 14:14 Thank for that info. I was not aware of those facts. Re:Re:PSG Value? by kwagga on 01 Jun 14:49 Gravy, I think you've just added a few colours to my picture of PSG. Something is definitely up. No one with Jooste's business acumen would invest this amount of money in any company if there is little payback. The JSE has also moved from R70 - R80 within the last two weeks. I smell a big fat rat.... Re:PSG Value? by SimonPB(Standard Bank) on 01 Jun 14:51 remember FSB rules state that nobody can own more then 15% of the JSE. Re:Re:PSG Value? by Preston on 01 Jun 14:55 Don't stress Simon..I have only got 14.967% , still a bit short.(LOL) Re:PSG Value? by topgun on 01 Jun 15:03 I don't want to ***** anyone's bubble but PSG has liquidated their 15% stake in JSE Ltd. some time ago as they were refused board representation - check their results annoncement on SENS. Re:Re:PSG Value? by Gravy on 01 Jun 15:58 Yup - you right - PSG did sell. Well spotted, TG. Still, the JSE remains on the US radar. So much for my supposition - must be some other reason Jooste is interested in PSG.. Re:Re:Re:PSG Value? by Gravy on 01 Jun 16:12 Come to think of it - maybe he needs a tax loss..
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Preston
Super Contributor
Sorry . I am trying to copy and paste the substance of our discussion but i guess teh formating is all incorrect. PSG shares price virtually double over a 12 month period and secondly it attracted a substantial investment lately R500m
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Blik
Super Contributor
many thanks Preston...will read and look at carefully
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pickle
Contributor
tas bf you ask because it will
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Blik
Super Contributor
Thanks Pickle - will also look at this oen - but is that not a brave punt for an AltX share?
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kwagga
Super Contributor
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ABuzz
Super Contributor
Hi Blik - It would depend on what you are trying to achieve by holding them for 15-20 years. Personally, I wouldn't keep any share for that long as I believe you would do better trading shares with your R 50 000 over that period rather than holding onto one stock only. Are you after dividend returns? Or are you wanting Capital Growth?
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Preston
Super Contributor
ABUZZ - I think i know where you are going with this.???
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ABuzz
Super Contributor
No Preston, I am not going to recommend JDH, or ABO for that matter. But was merely wondering what the purpose/objective was of keeping them for this long. I was thinking more along the lines of RBX, CBH or Sanlam or a number of others, but it depends on the objective.
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dimitrius
Regular Contributor
have to go with Sanlam. But I wouldn't hold for that long. I'd be trading the trend on this one.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
frankly I would suggest that most people would do better with a 20 year buy and hold then by trading over 20 years. In fact the vast majority who try and trade the markets end up poorer for the experience.

In 1990 you could have got SBK for around 175c, now it is R105 with an annual div for 06 of 320c. How many "traders" have turned R5k into R300k (excluding divs) trading over the last 17 years? Then STX40 up some 400% in the last 4 years! In theory trading is easy - but still the vast majority fail.

Also trading is effort, buy and hold is the lazy route.
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dimitrius
Regular Contributor
well that's a refreshing outlook from an online broker. I thought you would be pushing the trade Simon. Nice to see that I was wrong.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
dimitrius, we want rich clients - then we'll be rich. Poor clients are bad for business.
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Preston
Super Contributor
Sorry Simon.. I think you meant to say that you want "intellectual client" i.e more transcation ,more brokerage fees ..bigger bounus.. increased divisional profit within Standard Bank Core Department. "Being rich does not mean being intelligent" I am yet to see an Intellectual rich Dude?
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Blik
Super Contributor
Thank you all for the replies...you see I am not a good enough of a trader to make 50 K worthwhile - I would probably lose it. So the 15 - 20 year goal is really a retirement goal, where dividends and captital growth both come into play. What are the general feelings about Distell?
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Not applicable
Blik, you should remember allocate a trailing "stop loss" to the stock you choose, to avoid a BIG LOSS (as Simon PB said).
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