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My TFIA has really been running since the Rand started sliding. However nothing keeps going in one direction. I am going to sell all the ETF's in my TFIA and wait for the Rand to normalise again before taking positions again. In mean time I am earning interest.
Am I missing something with this approach?
I have lightened my USA focussed ETF's, cos the run up is now looking for a place to fall off the cliff and being some 43% up I am not complaining . I don't know if the ZAR will return to 12 30 but it sure is oversold. Standard sees it (?) strengthening by the year end. I think one might want to lean over the fence and look down on some heading for oversold ETF's - as in undervalued - (is property reaching a reasonable yeild ?)- and therefore price? Sure looks better than the stupid stuff at the year's beginning. I started looking at emerging markets but the SATRIX offering looks obscure as it stands - well at least to me
Since I decide to sell my USD based ETF's in my TFIA, on 5 Sep, the value of all ETF's have dropped almost 4.5% in one month. Looking at the USD-ZAR graph, it seems a head and shoulder formation is in play, so I recon Rand is going to gain in the next month, resulting in further value loss of the USD based ETF's. So not yet time to buy USD ETF's.