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TOPI - bounce or dive?

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Its Monday and nothing ever really goes the way you plan it, so now i am sitting looking at the TOPI and wondering will it bounce back to 24000 or dive to 23650? Anyone got a guess?
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Super Contributor
Seems to be holding at some sort of support. FTSE going green. I suspect the earlier dive was because the market maker entered liquidity a bit late. I was told that the market maker (satrix or whoever) was supposed to enter the market at 9:15 but I find this almost never the case. Today those 100 000 shares came in at 9:45-9:50. I suspect the low today was due to poor liquidity. Not sure if everyone knows this but TOPI traders can call the OST hotline if the market maker hasn't come on board. OST will then contact the market maker. I think some clarity is needed on the market makers (how many of em?) role in the TOPI.
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Valued Contributor
market maker supposed to arive at 9.10am .. an they unlikley to influence the market .. sure the STX40 and hence any derivative issued over, my then be out of kilter .. but tha's not going to drive the overall market ..
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Super Contributor
simon, many analysts spoke about the "suckers rally" in a bear market..do you think that this is what we seeing? everyone wanting to buy into drops when the market is going to reach lower lows? - personal opinion is that we in a recovery, and this is a retracement?
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Valued Contributor
I think thhis is a suckers collapse in a bull market .. in truth we'll know in 6 or so months ..
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Super Contributor
Fact is if smart money starts seeing value in the market, they will start buying, irrespective if the market is still going down a bit. It's the suckers that always end up with the expensive crumbs. Market is moving closer to fair value in my mind, but blue chips aren't yet cheap enough to buy. Any blue chip with a market cap > R10 bil, PE<9, a 5 year history of divi's, divi yield > 4% and earnings yield > 8 is worth looking at. Run that figure through share filter every day. Only thing that pops up are construction sector shares which are highly cyclical and in a bear market. If you're looking for a crash to buy again, you're gonna wait a long time. The market is not that dumb.
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Super Contributor
i think if the DOW holds 10,000 then the market will rise,if how ever it goes below then the knock -on effect will cause a bloodbath worldwide!
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Valued Contributor
bloodbath .. now hter ebe fighting talk ..
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Super Contributor
FWIW saw my little BOE man this morning, pretty pleased with himself for taking profits two weeks ago. He reckons still significant downside to come. Probably right if you look at the big topi shares that have broken support - AGL, IMP etc still have a way to go before they hit next support levels. I'll be buying IMP at 177 and AGL at 263.
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Valued Contributor
why do I have this feeling that ig your little BOE man is selling .. then surely I should be buying ??
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Funny thing about expectations - AGL's PE now is about 15, which is 2% higher than the median PE for the last 10 years, so there is a little, but not much, bias towards greater than average future earnings. Kumba is trading on a PE of about 13. But it is at the same price as march 2008 - back then it was trading at a PE of 30+. So my personal view is that markets are not really over-valued, they have priced earnings expectations to match current year performances. It is going to take something really significant to shatter that belief
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Valued Contributor
ya but remember the arket is looign at next years earnings for todays price ..
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Super Contributor
Simon - is it time for a new keyboard maybe. I really doubt its your typing.
I am thinking of buying some SatDiv's .... Simon, do you think this is a good time to start entry, or should I wait for the end of this reporting cycle?
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Valued Contributor
new keyboard .. an my typing .. an I always buying .. most months I have money to ut into the market .. the only issue is which stocks, not shhould I or shouldn't I ..
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back to the intraday debate Simon, I have worked out that in order to cover your costs with a CFD on say AGL, you would need a 240pt move in your favour (excl bid/ask spread). Now this equates to a third of the 14 day ATR. To cover costs with a spread, you would need only a couple of points in a 400pt ATR - so absolutely no comparison, day trading with stocks is a losing battle
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Valued Contributor
skaaptjop, ya don't get me wrong .. I think day trading is a mugs game, regardless what you day trading .. some more mugish then others ..
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Super Contributor
no ways..market is looking at last nights US markets action.. simple
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Valued Contributor
nah boet, if you looking at PE's you looking at fundamentals and as such last night means nothing .. not with standing that the correlation between us an the Dow is weak at best .. the real diss is that you're falling into the chartist trap of deciding there is only one way to look at things ...
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Super Contributor
If the market knew what the earings were going to be they would trade up or down to that level in a day or 2..simple...just the way the market reacts to a merger... the point is we dont know and therfore are trading on sentiment..and each day if the world does not end and SAB sold beer like it did the day before it is likly that it heads up by a few cents...but it certainly does not price the future despite its best eforts.. the problem you are making is believing the markets are effecent..and they are not
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Valued Contributor
of course the market doesn;t know .. bbuut they have a view, and differing views and changing info .. hence we get short term volatility whhich is also driven by sentiment .. but the market is forward looking .. even when you enter a short term ALSI trade, you are forward looking, that forward may just be 30 minutes, but stiill forward ..
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