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Serious correction !

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striker
Super Contributor
- Werner you must be concerned. Headed for R15's.
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21 REPLIES 21
richardw
Super Contributor
If you only buy GND and never sell it, then having the price drop is good. Now...how often do you reckon Werner sells GND? :)
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striker
Super Contributor
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striker
Super Contributor
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Not applicable
If you had bought long term lets say start 2007 you would be evens at today's price . I said it at the start of 09 .... the [email protected]'st share around ... and ill stick to that .... So much for cash hey ?
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striker
Super Contributor
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kwagga
Super Contributor
You've got it all wrong. This is a wonderful share for the following reasons - It's got a monopoly, barriers to entry is high, well run company, cash possitive. Just because it tracks a global index like the Baltic dry index doesn't make it rubbish. It's linked to global growth and as long as you keep that in mind you'll understand this share better. Don't look back a mere 3 years for a comparison in prices, look back 10 years when it traded @ 60c. If only I had this in my portfolio 10 years ago.
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richardw
Super Contributor
Werner is unlikely to sell GND until their long-term fundamentals change, or he needs the money for something else. If so, then the only reason why he would pay attention to the price is when he wants to buy more. So low price is good.
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striker
Super Contributor
- kwagga - so you believe the market has got it wrong ? Whatever your perceptions about the stock the market does'nt share them. The market is never wrong - ignore at your peril.
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kwagga
Super Contributor
No, on the contrary, the market got this one spot on. From 60 odd cents to 1600c in 10 years. That's 2500%+ growth. So what is your idea of a good return if this is not one of your favorites?
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Alonzo7
Frequent Contributor
Striker, you got it all wrong. This is an excellent buy and an excellent Company. I just bought quite a bit of normal shares a few minutes ago at R16-13 per share....IF ONLY the Bulk of my funds were NOT in Shoprite....I would have spent it all on Grindrod (dividends are great as well). I suggest you do some serious research.Cheers
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prancing_horse
Super Contributor
What's your call on this shares in a weeks time (4th feb). Mine is 1680. bought at 1610 on CFD's earlier so putting money where my mouth is. This share owes me nothing, in fact it's the one counter that has made me the most money in 2010 on CFD's in 2010.Also hold a nice parcel on long term portfolio.Markets may get it right, but remember markets ALWAYS over react
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Alonzo7
Frequent Contributor
I'd say around R17-00.
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striker
Super Contributor
To all the die hard fans of GND. Analysing the shares performance, one will agree from it's listing around the late 80's to the middle of 2008 it did well.It touched R28 in mid 2008. Now here's the problem ; from 2008 to 2011 it's growth is negative (- 11.63%). In fact it's growth from 2006 to 2011 has only been 16.70% - not great for a 5 yr. view. So kwagga, the 2500%growth you rave about is misleading- the stock simply has not recovered from the sub prime crash, whereas most stocks have and are making fresh highs - not GND. If one bought at 60c early days and sold mid 2008,you would have done handsomely. Since 2008 it's been a laggard and far better recovery stocks were available. They are many that have done a whole lot better than minus 11-63% over the past 3 years.OMO.
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striker
Super Contributor
- alonzo 7 / kwagga - see my point ?
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richardw
Super Contributor
Are you looking for the answer here, or just want to be right? You don't like it, others do, life goes on.
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striker
Super Contributor
- no richard ,it's not about being right. It's about conducting an open balanced debate, and presenting my views based on the facts.
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Not applicable
GND is not a short term play - never has been. It is a cyclical industry, which is currently sitting with structural problems. Essentially, in the boom years, when shipping prices were skyrocketing, everyone and his uncle ordered new ships to get in the game. But it takes a couple of years to build the things, and now we are sitting with massive oversupply. So their shipping business is taking a hammering. Actually, from their interims, it has already turned (in dollar terms), but the rand strength is hurting them. Now ther real item to watch is their freight business, of which ports and terminals contribute around 50% of PAT. Mozambique port is set to triple its capacity this year - which by my calculations will move the freight contribution to around 175m - a 75% improvement. You can almost value GND at current levels on this business alone. In my opinion, you are currently getting GND's shipping business practically for free - so I am buying and buying and buying again - my only concern is that it is significantly overweighting my portfolio right now.
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Not applicable
Yeah...been looking at the 18.9% drop in Jan alone.I see R15.25 as a good cfd-buy.I envisage a 10% bounce from there.Supply is pushing nicely,though.Love the price-action,as at.May even get some wild swings in Feb...
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olilau
Frequent Contributor
hi all what striker is arguing has merit... from a trader and short term performance view perhaps. but even from that view i could have made 150K on this share last year by buying the lows and selling the highs. i would choose the werner, kwagga and skaaptjop camp on this one because i too like this share for the long term. this business is not straight forward and subject to very strong undercurrents of the shipping industry for a large part of its business. fact is, the shipping industry is very depressed at the moment. what makes it more complicated, is that the shipping industry suffers in all areas, but worse in those where the economic recovery is taking longer. rates and cargo movements between SA and europe are far better and more balanced north and south bound than for instance between SA and USA. a colleague of mine was with the grindrod group and had the fortune of owning shares from when they were at r 2.50, before any splits. (i can only wish.) i came in on the tail end of 2008 and i am up 30%. earlier in jan, i was up 60%. all the more reason to buy more now. given the current market the share in my (and incidentally a couple of the executive directors of grindrod, who i know) opinion is undervalued. the balance sheet easily supports a R 19- R20 level with upward scope due to points made by skaaptjop already. it is unlikely, but i suppose one could hope, that another ivan clark or tim mc clure will come and sniff out another cracker deal the likes IVS have pulled off, and we can all ride the high wave. as it stands, i think the surfs pretty good, in fact, surfs up.
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